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P 250258Z AUG 85
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P 21220OZ AUG 85 CCY OF MCN 234/998
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SECTION 01 OF 02
SUBJ: CATEGORIZATION OF LOSS INCIDENTS: IN VIETNAM
NSC FOR MR. CHILDRESS
1. This message provides the results of a JCRC analysis of all the loss incidents of Americans remaining unresolved in Vietnam. The JCRC initiated this study in order to determine:
----- The number of cases involving crash or ground sites which must be surveyed and those which are most likely to require excavation, based upon available file evidence.
----- Those cases in which a site-survey or excavation would be of negligible value, without prior receipt of additional information from the Vietnamese. (This category includes cases involving personnel who Died in Captivity, ejected from the aircraft before it crashed, and were lost in inland waters. Also included are personnel for whom loss locations were not established and those for whom the Vietnamese have provided material evidence.)
----- Losses at sea, which have little chance of resolution.
2; The JCRC analytical breakdown of the Crash / Ground sites (by REFNO NUMBER) in Vientnam follows. These sites are categorized first by location. I.E.. In North Vietnam, South Vietnam or losses at sea. Sub Categories are determined by the circumstances surrounding the incident.
A. There are a total of 335 loss incidents in North Vietnam.
(1) 0f these, 105 are crash sites involving incidents in which the crew was out of the aircraft. These include cases where parachutes were sighted, oral contact was established, captures were reported, beepers were heard, or there was some other firm indication that the aircraft crashed without a crew aboard. In general, these are the cases for which the Vietnamese would be expected to possess significant information. Most of the cases discussed in the technical meetings (I.E. Warehouse Cases) have been selected form this category. Refnos are as follows:
0080 0092 0105 0107 0114 0133 0147 0158
0168 0179 0215 0247 0277 0329 0356 0357
0400 0412 0413 0425 0430 0431 0435 0441
0453 0459 0471 0489 0517 0527 0531 0533
0540 0541 0542 0544 0575 0589 0619 0629
0641 0644 0650 0658 0659 0667 0677 0679
0680 0691 0705 0711 0727 0751 0754 0804
0805 0815 0826 0840 0855 0873 0892 0897
0909 0911 0913 0914 0918 0945 0969 0970
0986 1004 1048 1075 1095 1207 1214 1242
1243 1248 1269 1295 1307 1311 1327 1329
1388 1553 1809 1843 1850 1870 1872 1882
1890 1908 1914 1930 1934 1942 1951 1958
1975
(2) Seventy-three cases are those for which there is no reliable locating data. In most instances, these cases where a location has never been established provide no operationally sound bases for conducting a site survey or excavation. Refnos are as follows:
(3) Two are water site cases involving aircraft which crashed into rivers with crew members aboard. One occured near shore in the Gulf of Tonkin; the other was in the mouth of the Nguon May River. Refnos are as follows:
0067 0289
(4) Fourteen are material evidence cases, in which material evidence has been provided by the Vietnamese. This evidence is an indication that the Vietnamese have additional information about the cases, and are capable of assisting in the resolution of the cases. Refnos are as follows:
(5) One hundred forty-one incidents will definitely require site surveys. Most of these will probably require excavation. Evidence exists that the remains of one or more servicemembers are at or near the crash site. Which has a reasonably accurate location. Refnos are as follows:
D. There are 535 total incidents in South Vietnam.
(1) Twenty-one involve personnel on the PRG Died in Captivity list. Refnos are as follows:
(2) Fourteen incidents involve individuals who are not on the PRG DIC List, but whom the JCRC believes to have been captured or DIC. Refnos are as follows:
(4) Forty-seven are unlocated crash sites. Refnos are as follows:
(5) Seven cases involve aircraft lost in inland water sites: the aircraft crahsed into large rivers or coastal waterways with crew members probably aboard. Refnos are as follows:
(6) There are 157 crash sites to survey and potentially, to excavate. As with the North, these are incidents for which there is evidence that servicemembers are at the site. Refnos are as follows:
(7) There are 131 ground sites without reliable locations. Refnos are as follows:
(8) There are 66 incidents involving losses of personnel in inland water under circumstances which provide poor locating data. Refnos are as follows:
(9) There are 64 ground sites in South Vietnam to visit. Our records indicate that there are one or more servicemenbers at or near these locations. Because these are ground combat losses it is unlikely that excavations would be feasible or yield significant results. Refnos are as follows:
C. Finally, there are 244 losses at sea, ranging from just off the coast of Vietnam to 350 miles west of the Philippines. In these incidnets the aircraft crashed into the open sea: locating data are generally poor and the circumstances offer little reason to expect resolution.
4. In Summary the above information demonstrates that there is a minimum of 362 ground and crash sites in Vietnam which should be surveyed, and that the majority of these will also warrant excavation. An additional 508 incidnets are highly unlikely to be resolved without addtional Vientamese assistance. Although the 244 losses at sea hold little potential for resolution. The cases should continue to be discussed with the Vietnamese. The 26 remains which the Vietnamese returned on 14 August are included in the above count as they have not yet been positively identified.
5. FOR DIA: Your analytical input is requested.
MCN-85237/01272 TOR-85237/0304Z TAD-85237/0321Z CDSN-MAD914.
ARMY SECTIONAL MSG PAGE 2 OF 2 21200Z AUG 85