Rand Reports

Rand Reports on POW/MIAs

Volume 1:

This report was prepared as a part of the project "The POW/MIA Issue in U.S.-North Korean Relations." The report consists of three volumes. This volume addresses American prisoners of war (POW) and missing in action (MIA) cases who were not repatriated following the Korean War, with particular emphasis on whether any American servicemen were transferred to USSR territory during the war. The author finds evidence that Americans were in fact transferred to the USSR from the Korean War zone of combat operations. The tentative identity of one individual is presented, as is an estimate that approximately 50 American POW/MIAs were transferred to Soviet territory. The report looks at evidence that Americans were transported to and retained in the People's Republic of China, concluding that with the exception of highly publicized cases that eventually led to repatriation, American servicemen were not retained in China following the war. The report also discusses the location of American remains in North Korean territory and suggests policy measures that could improve the chances of their recovery and repatriation. It concludes with recommendations for a U.S. policy toward recovering remains from North Korea. The central elements of this strategy derive from the requirement to retrieve additional identification media from North Korea. The proposed change in U.S. policy shifts priority to methods of recovering remains that will increase the possibility that remains can be confidently associated with Americans who did not return from the Korean War.

Volume 2:

This report was prepared as a part of the project "The POW/MIA Issue in U.S.-North Korean Relations." The report consists of three volumes. This volume addresses three issues: First, it examines whether American servicemen liberated by Soviet forces from Nazi German POW camps in the European theater of operations in World War II were not repatriated. Second, it examines whether American aircrews in the Far East and European theaters were detained in USSR territory. Third, early Cold War incidents are examined to determine whether archive materials indicated that American servicemen and civilians were held alive in USSR territory.

Volume 3:

This report was prepared as a part of the project "The POW/MIA Issue in U.S.-North Korean Relations." The report consists of three volumes. This volume, an appendix volume, contains a number of POW rosters, primary source documents, and other lists. It is intended to complement volumes I and II.

Rand Report on Rescuing Downed Aircrew

Rescuing Downed Aircrew

Recovering downed airmen is a critical task for the U.S. Air Force, which devotes considerable resources — including personnel, equipment, and training — to ensure that it can carry out this task. In light of the impending draw down of forces and the pressure to reduce defense budgets, the Air Force has been reassessing its personnel recovery (PR) force structure, along with other organizational aspects. It asked RAND Project AIR FORCE to assist in this reassessment with an examination of the operational risk associated with Air Force PR. Specifically, the Air Force sought "to refine the metric used to assess PR's operational risk, [which] is the degree of likelihood of mission success."

To this end, the research described here quantifies the "rescuability window" of downed aircrews. The current research quantifies the relationship between rescuability and time so that the most cost-effective options for increasing the rescuability of downed personnel can be pursued. The implications of the findings are also summarized in this report.

Key Findings

The "Rescuability Timeline" Can Be Divided into Three Distinct Temporal Regions That Correspond to Aircrew Survivability After a Downing Event.

· Survival in the first region, comprising the first few moments, largely depends on the survivability of the aircraft and the crew's ability to avoid immediate capture. In this region, personnel have about a 50-percent chance of surviving the downing and avoiding immediate capture.

· The second region extends out to two hours. Survival in this region is dependent on the individual's ability to avoid capture.

· Personnel who survive and evade capture longer two hours enter the third temporal region. Here, the rescuability curve is relatively flat, suggesting that the longer a person has avoided capture, the more likely he or she is to be able to continue to avoid capture.

Recommendation

· The U.S. Air Force should use the rescuability timeline developed in this research to compare the cost-effectiveness of various personnel recovery assets and tactics.

Table of Contents

· Chapter One: Introduction

· Chapter Two: Personnel Recovery Data from Past and Present Conflicts

· Chapter Three: Approach and Methods to Assess the Value of Time

· Chapter Four: Rescuability Curves by Conflict

· Chapter Five: Rescuability Curves as Functions of Predictors

· Chapter Six: Conclusions

· Appendix A: Immersion Survival Data

· Appendix B: Definition of Factors Recorded for Isolation Events

· Appendix C: Short Description of Each Recorded Even